Oil supply to rise in 2025 despite Opec cuts, says IEA

PARIS: Oil supply is set to outpace global demand next year even as Opec+ members extended cuts in efforts to prop up prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.

Eight members of the alliance, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed earlier this month to maintain supply cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for three more months through March.

But the IEA said global supply was on track to grow by 630,000 bpd this year and 1.9 million bpd in 2025, with the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina leading the way.

“This would bring total supply to 104.8 million bpd for 2025, while demand is forecast to rise to 103.9 million bpd,” the IEA said in its monthly oil market report.

The IEA said demand from China, the world’s biggest importer of oil, has “slowed markedly” as its economic growth has sputtered, while emerging Asian countries would lead gains in 2024 and 2025.

“Persistent overproduction from some Opec+ members, robust supply growth from non-Opec+ countries and relatively modest global oil demand growth leave the market looking comfortably supplied in 2025,” the report said.

Crude oil prices were “largely unchanged” in November, with Brent, the international benchmark contract, at around US$73 per barrel, according to the IEA.

“As the year draws to a close, oil markets appear relatively calm, with crude oil trading in a US$70-US$75/bbl (per barrel) range,” the IEA said.

“But, as recent years have shown, market shocks can arrive with little or no warning, making close attention to oil security as important as ever,” it said.